Product · Forecast
Will this trader's next committed plan produce an exceeded observation?
That is the question the board answers, and the only one. The forecast is derived from committed plans and their observations: it starts at the organisation's rate, moves with the trader's record, and weights recent plans more. Every figure opens onto the plans that produced it.
A projection settles when the next plan is evaluated.
A projection is made at each committed plan and settles when the next one is evaluated. The board shows, per trader, the forecast against the realised rate over settled plans, so a reader sees whether the number overclaims.
The board states what it will not say.
- Figures withheld below three prior plans.
- Tiers withheld below five scored traders.
- The organisation rate and the cut lines are printed in the header.
- Calibration is shown as forecast versus realised.
- Brier scores are kept in the detail beside their references, never alone.
Stated as the product states it.
“Calibrates on the execution feed. Not connected.”
Scoring against fills arrives with the execution feed. Until it ships, the board scores the plan horizon only, and says so on screen.
Their number, their trend, nothing about anyone else.
The trader sees their own forecast and its trend in their own window. They see nothing about any other trader.